MACRO PULSE // EFFR INDEX: LIVE | US10Y: 4.24% | CORE CPI TARGET: 2.50%
Practice with real headlines
bucket.trade is a free educational simulator for macro prediction markets. Trade with $10,000 in simulated capital across live Kalshi and Polymarket contracts—no real money, no brokerage account required.
Read the same headlines and contract prices professionals watch, build a thesis, size positions with coach feedback, and track lifetime P&L on a public scoreboard. It is structured practice for rates, inflation, policy, and event risk—not sports betting.
Portable intel // mobile app
Macro moves on Fed prints, CPI releases, and geopolitical headlines whether you are in class or commuting. bucket.trade is building a mobile experience so you can stay oriented to live implied probabilities, finish short learning modules, and review open sim positions from the same account you use on web.
Get notified when major data drops or contract prices move sharply—Fed decision days, inflation prints, employment reports, and high-volume political markets. Stay aligned with the same signals desks watch, without refreshing a dozen tabs.
Turn a five-minute break into progress. Bite-sized modules cover implied probability, position sizing, and how event contracts settle—designed to stack with the Learn tab and chapter quizzes on desktop.
One simulated wallet across web and mobile: open positions, daily question streaks, coach settings, and scoreboard rank stay in sync. Start a thesis on laptop, check the mark on your phone.
iOS and Android apps — coming soon. Leave your email below if you want a note when they ship.
Information markets
Regulated exchanges for event contracts—structured instruments whose prices reflect market-implied probability (65¢ ≈ 65% chance), similar to how yields and options encode financial expectations.
Each contract asks a specific question—Will the Fed cut rates before year-end? Will CPI print below 3%?—with a resolution source and date. Your entry price is the market's probability estimate; returns reflect whether you were right or how that estimate moved.
Researchers and institutions study these prices because they often lead consensus shifts on rates, inflation, elections, and geopolitical risk. bucket.trade lets you practice reading implied probability, sizing positions, and tracking P&L with simulated capital only.
Example: YES at 42¢ → ~42% implied chance · settles at $1.00 or $0.00
How it actually works
Analyze real-world contracts tracking technology, economics, and pop culture.
Allocate your $10,000 simulated capital across "YES" or "NO" contract positions to practice backing a market thesis.
Practice balance
$10,000
Monitor your total Profit and Loss (P&L). This is your ultimate metric, showing the absolute green or red dollar amount your portfolio has made or lost over time across all settled trades.
Before you click
Choose Predicty AI. Your coach reviews proposed size against market-implied probability before you submit a simulated order.
Predicty AI
Sizing check · simulated trades only
Your action
Sizing a $2,500 position (25% of portfolio) on the Nobel AI contract.
Coach feedback
Position size alert. A $2,500 allocation is 25% of portfolio on a contract priced at 34%. Consider $1,000 (10%) to preserve flexibility if the thesis is wrong.
Leaderboard
Placeholder traders hold open slots. Real accounts replace them as people join and trade.
They are information markets where event contracts trade at prices that reflect implied probability—similar to how financial markets encode expectations about rates, growth, and risk. bucket.trade lets you practice that discipline with simulated capital. See the Prediction Markets section on this page for a full overview.
No. bucket.trade is a free simulation. You trade with $10,000 in simulated cash to learn how prediction markets work and test strategies.
Our platform syncs with live, real-world events, tech breakthroughs, economic shifts, and pop culture trends to give you accurate, real-time odds.
Predicty AI is your trading coach — direct feedback on position sizing and implied probability. Orion is an alternate coach style coming later. Predicty AI does not place trades on your behalf.
Get notified only when it matters—major product updates, new trading features, or exclusive learning drops. No spam, just value.
Loading today’s question…
Select a contract and open the trade window to review the chart, choose YES or NO, enter an amount, and submit.
Select a stock, pick headline risks, and discover complementary event contracts.
Search Google, Tesla, NVDA, Apple, Microsoft… or pick a chip below.
Kalshi and Polymarket contracts that complement your selected risk factors.
Choose how much simulated cash to spread across the contracts below.
Hedge size (% of available cash)
Spendable Cash
$10,000
Liquid simulation balance
Open Positions Value
$0
Live mark-to-market
Total Net Worth
$10,000
Cash + positions
Holdings ledger
Your simulation wallet is funded. Explore live contracts and place your first trade.
Badges
Earn badges by practicing sound trading habits across the platform.
Top 5
Five slots, ranked by lifetime P&L. Placeholder traders fill empty spots until real accounts join and climb the board.
Learn curriculum
Complete each chapter quiz in order (4/5 correct to pass). Chapter 01 unlocks trading and the simulator. Later chapters each add $500 bonus capital when passed.
Chapter 01
The contract percentage displayed on every live market card is the direct price of one share, represented in cents on the dollar.
Example quote
70%
A 70% market probability means a single YES share costs exactly $0.70.
Binary resolution payout
Correct outcome → share matures and pays a flat $1.00 in cash.
Incorrect outcome → share drops to $0.00 and expires worthless.
Because all binary contracts must resolve to either 100% or 0%, the inverse side is mathematically locked. If a YES share trades at 70% ($0.70), the corresponding NO share must trade at 30% ($0.30).
Every transaction on bucket.trade matches a buyer of YES with a buyer of NO. When you buy a YES share for $0.70 and someone else buys a NO share for $0.30, those fractions are combined into a secure $1.00 capital pool held by the clearinghouse system.
Paired entry → unified pool
$0.70 YES + $0.30 NO = $1.00 pool
Upon final real-world event resolution, that entire $1.00 pool is transferred cleanly to whichever side predicted correctly. The platform itself acts purely as a neutral, non-custodial matching engine — winners are funded entirely by losers.
Live prices fluctuate continuously based on shifting supply and demand curves.
The bid
The highest price a buyer is currently willing to pay for a contract share.
The ask
The lowest price a seller is currently willing to accept to part with their share.
The spread
The mathematical gap between the highest bid and the lowest ask.
In markets with high Volume, competition forces this spread to narrow to a single penny ($0.01), minimizing transaction friction. In illiquid, low-volume markets, wider spreads make entry and exit significantly more expensive.
